Whereas polls earlier than the hearings confirmed that 49 p.c favored impeachment versus 47 p.c who opposed it, a survey by Yahoo Information and YouGov on the finish of the hearings discovered help for impeachment at 48 p.c and opposition at 45 p.c. Different polls could finally present motion however, at first blush, the drama of listening to the proof offered out loud by actual witnesses with evident credibility didn’t noticeably shift the general dynamics.
Democrats and Republicans alike privately agreed that it seemed unlikely that even a single Republican would vote for impeachment when it reaches the Home ground. Within the Senate, Republican strategists stated they believed they may lose two senators — Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — whereas Democratic strategists stated in addition they may lose two — Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.
“We’ve just had this partisan divide ever since the Clinton years,” stated former Consultant Barbara J. Comstock, Republican of Virginia. “Whether it was Supreme Court nominations or this, it’s just become a team sport, shirts and skins, no matter what the issues are.”
Steve Elmendorf, the highest aide to the Home Democratic chief when Mr. Clinton was impeached, agreed that lawmakers seem locked into their positions. “Except,” he cautioned, “we are in the Trump show, where anything can happen. Two months ago, we did not think he was going to be impeached over a phone call we knew little about.”
Among the many wild playing cards that would nonetheless change the course of occasions may be testimony by among the key witnesses who to date have refused to speak, together with John R. Bolton, the previous nationwide safety adviser who opposed the stress marketing campaign and is ready for a courtroom ruling on whether or not he ought to seem.
Mr. Trump has lengthy argued that an impeachment battle would assist him politically by galvanizing his base in opposition to the elites attempting to invalidate the 2016 election. Whereas he has refused to supply testimony or paperwork to the Home, arguing that the method is rigged in opposition to him, he takes his case as an alternative to night rallies in sports activities arenas stuffed with supporters.
Mr. Trump and his allies took coronary heart from a Marquette College Legislation College ballot displaying him with small leads in opposition to every of the Democratic front-runners amongst voters in Wisconsin, probably the most essential battleground states for 2020. That ballot, taken through the first week of hearings, confirmed that help for impeachment within the state had slipped by 4 proportion factors to 40 p.c.